第31届香港电影金像奖放肆预测

终于看了桃姐,可以挨个聊聊今年的金像奖。31届香港金像奖重要奖项的提名影片我基本都看了,或许是由于规则的问题去年1月份的让子弹飞和刚上映的桃姐竟能正面交锋。

今年的金像奖取消了最佳亚洲电影,由最佳华语电影代之,志在鼓励华语电影发扬光大,而且一个不小心还赶上内地加大引进片数量的年份,可谓意义重大。
获提名的五部影片,我看过其中三部,《那些年》借九把刀的名头以及时下不减的怀旧风潮,取得非常优异的票名成绩;《金陵十三钗》外有蝙蝠侠相助,内有史上最大投资,自是一大热门;《非诚勿扰2》继三年前入围最佳亚洲电影后,再度入围,而且冯小刚与香港电影向来交集颇多,再获殊荣与属正常。另外两部来自台湾的电影,《星空》改编自几米的漫画,《赛赛德克·巴莱》已获金马奖的认可,捎带取下金像,也不足为奇。

赛德克·巴莱

预测:《赛赛德克·巴莱》获奖
 
最佳新演员获提名五人中,萧敬腾的杀手形象并不深刻,连诗雅的银幕处子秀似乎并不如她出唱片表现得好,画壁虽有〝三个嫖客逛青楼〞之嫌,好歹郑爽多少还有些清新气,吴千语……至少《开心魔法》实在看不出是部电影,盛鉴在《龙门飞甲》戏份实在少了些,他又不似张学友在《笑傲江湖》中抢戏。

郑爽

预测:郑爽《画壁》获奖
 
视觉类的技术奖,《龙门飞甲》或者会包圆,《画壁》也许能抢一个最佳服装造型。《窃听风云2》、《夺命金》和《让子弹飞》对最佳剪辑也都就虎视耽耽。
 
听觉类的技术奖,五部提名原创电影歌曲都未给我深刻印象。原创电影音乐来看,个人比较倾向《窃听风云2》。最佳音效,想来想去还是《让子弹飞》吧。
 
动作设计来看,《龙门飞甲》那段龙卷风会加分不少,《白蛇传说》感觉突破不大,《武侠》就突破太大了,我以为释永信大师能在《新少林寺》中亲自上阵,《让子弹飞》的动作戏被三个影帝抢了太多风头。

《龙门飞甲》特效

预测:《龙门飞甲》获奖
 
女配方面来看三个影后加上一老一新,竞争还是很激烈的。桂纶镁的造型颠覆太大,有点过。刘嘉玲和惠英红两位出场时间略显短暂。秦海潞的角色似乎并未有充分发挥。 苏杏璇所饰演的角色虽只有两场戏——《夺命金》三线并进,两场戏相来说很多了——但对小人物心态的把握与刻画都是准确到位的。

苏杏璇

预测:苏杏璇《夺命金》获奖
 
在2011年,我对黄老邪曾江拿下最佳男配是深信不疑的,但是看完《桃姐》后,我有所动摇——大汗秦沛的表现也是令人叹服的。另外两位戏骨,王羽、卢海鹏也都十分出色,小谢的反派就算了,反正都拿过的。比较一下,曾江的表演颇为外露,与刘青云、吴彦祖的对手戏中,气场完全压制。反观秦沛,似乎为配合情节,表演方式上绝对的内敛,不露声色中完全角色塑造。曾江似乎在重复黄药师、龙成邦、雷探长这些经典,而秦沛也曾两夺最佳男配,实在很难选择,不知能否双黄蛋啊!

曾江

预测:曾江《窃听风云2》获奖
 
最佳女主还有悬念么?让舒淇给另外三位讲讲感受就成了,反正刚刚输了金马的。

叶德娴

不预测:叶德娴《桃姐》获奖
 
男主方面,四个人、四部戏,绝对可以说是惨绝人寰啊!至少可以确定两个输家:刘青云和《让子弹飞》……《让子弹飞》,三个男主一个都不能少,我甚至怀疑如果不是入围名单非得是五个人,都会把发哥加进来。《窃听风云2》中的刘青云有些中规中矩,气场不如曾江,矛盾不如吴彦祖。而《夺命金》中,刘青云则有着足够发挥,基本未受更多限制。华仔,哦不,刘老板在《桃姐》中塑造的凡常人,十分的贴地气,不做作,否则也不会有金马拿。

刘青云

预测:刘青云《夺命金》获奖
 
最佳编剧只是比男主候选多了个《单身男女》,坦白说,不看好这部都市言情戏获奖。《桃姐》的真人真事,《让子弹飞》的苦心改编,都是大热。麦庄与银河创作组一直也都是可以信赖的金字招牌。这四部也挺难抉择。

《窃听风云2》

预测:《窃听风云2》获奖
 
许鞍华、徐克、杜琪峰、麦兆辉&庄文强、姜文,从这五组六人挑选一组拿奖似乎不比发影帝、定剧本容易。他们各有风格,难分高下。

《桃姐》

预测:许鞍华《桃姐》获奖
 
最佳影片似乎不太方便让刘老板蝉联,照常惯的分猪肉风格,《让子弹飞》应该分食一杯羹,可惜“子弹”热度一年前就下去了,大大的不利。《桃姐》实在是真实的有些平淡了。《夺命金》三线齐发,观影体验略显松散。徐老怪在为众人趟High Tech之路。《窃听风云2》会不重演当年火拼《十月围城》全面失利的悲剧呢?

预测:《窃听风云2》获奖

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