终于看了桃姐，可以挨个聊聊今年的金像奖。31届香港金像奖重要奖项的提名影片我基本都看了，或许是由于规则的问题去年1月份的让子弹飞和刚上映的桃姐竟能正面交锋。
今年的金像奖取消了最佳亚洲电影，由最佳华语电影代之，志在鼓励华语电影发扬光大，而且一个不小心还赶上内地加大引进片数量的年份，可谓意义重大。
获提名的五部影片，我看过其中三部，《那些年》借九把刀的名头以及时下不减的怀旧风潮，取得非常优异的票名成绩;《金陵十三钗》外有蝙蝠侠相助，内有史上最大投资，自是一大热门;《非诚勿扰2》继三年前入围最佳亚洲电影后，再度入围，而且冯小刚与香港电影向来交集颇多，再获殊荣与属正常。另外两部来自台湾的电影，《星空》改编自几米的漫画，《赛赛德克·巴莱》已获金马奖的认可，捎带取下金像，也不足为奇。
预测:《赛赛德克·巴莱》获奖
最佳新演员获提名五人中，萧敬腾的杀手形象并不深刻，连诗雅的银幕处子秀似乎并不如她出唱片表现得好，画壁虽有〝三个嫖客逛青楼〞之嫌，好歹郑爽多少还有些清新气，吴千语……至少《开心魔法》实在看不出是部电影，盛鉴在《龙门飞甲》戏份实在少了些，他又不似张学友在《笑傲江湖》中抢戏。
预测:郑爽《画壁》获奖
视觉类的技术奖，《龙门飞甲》或者会包圆，《画壁》也许能抢一个最佳服装造型。《窃听风云2》、《夺命金》和《让子弹飞》对最佳剪辑也都就虎视耽耽。
听觉类的技术奖，五部提名原创电影歌曲都未给我深刻印象。原创电影音乐来看，个人比较倾向《窃听风云2》。最佳音效，想来想去还是《让子弹飞》吧。
动作设计来看，《龙门飞甲》那段龙卷风会加分不少，《白蛇传说》感觉突破不大，《武侠》就突破太大了，我以为释永信大师能在《新少林寺》中亲自上阵，《让子弹飞》的动作戏被三个影帝抢了太多风头。
预测:《龙门飞甲》获奖
女配方面来看三个影后加上一老一新，竞争还是很激烈的。桂纶镁的造型颠覆太大，有点过。刘嘉玲和惠英红两位出场时间略显短暂。秦海潞的角色似乎并未有充分发挥。 苏杏璇所饰演的角色虽只有两场戏——《夺命金》三线并进，两场戏相来说很多了——但对小人物心态的把握与刻画都是准确到位的。
预测:苏杏璇《夺命金》获奖
在2011年，我对黄老邪曾江拿下最佳男配是深信不疑的，但是看完《桃姐》后，我有所动摇——大汗秦沛的表现也是令人叹服的。另外两位戏骨，王羽、卢海鹏也都十分出色，小谢的反派就算了，反正都拿过的。比较一下，曾江的表演颇为外露，与刘青云、吴彦祖的对手戏中，气场完全压制。反观秦沛，似乎为配合情节，表演方式上绝对的内敛，不露声色中完全角色塑造。曾江似乎在重复黄药师、龙成邦、雷探长这些经典，而秦沛也曾两夺最佳男配，实在很难选择，不知能否双黄蛋啊!
预测:曾江《窃听风云2》获奖
最佳女主还有悬念么?让舒淇给另外三位讲讲感受就成了，反正刚刚输了金马的。
不预测:叶德娴《桃姐》获奖
男主方面，四个人、四部戏，绝对可以说是惨绝人寰啊!至少可以确定两个输家:刘青云和《让子弹飞》……《让子弹飞》，三个男主一个都不能少，我甚至怀疑如果不是入围名单非得是五个人，都会把发哥加进来。《窃听风云2》中的刘青云有些中规中矩，气场不如曾江，矛盾不如吴彦祖。而《夺命金》中，刘青云则有着足够发挥，基本未受更多限制。华仔，哦不，刘老板在《桃姐》中塑造的凡常人，十分的贴地气，不做作，否则也不会有金马拿。
预测:刘青云《夺命金》获奖
最佳编剧只是比男主候选多了个《单身男女》，坦白说，不看好这部都市言情戏获奖。《桃姐》的真人真事，《让子弹飞》的苦心改编，都是大热。麦庄与银河创作组一直也都是可以信赖的金字招牌。这四部也挺难抉择。
预测:《窃听风云2》获奖
许鞍华、徐克、杜琪峰、麦兆辉&庄文强、姜文，从这五组六人挑选一组拿奖似乎不比发影帝、定剧本容易。他们各有风格，难分高下。
预测:许鞍华《桃姐》获奖
最佳影片似乎不太方便让刘老板蝉联，照常惯的分猪肉风格，《让子弹飞》应该分食一杯羹，可惜“子弹”热度一年前就下去了，大大的不利。《桃姐》实在是真实的有些平淡了。《夺命金》三线齐发，观影体验略显松散。徐老怪在为众人趟High Tech之路。《窃听风云2》会不重演当年火拼《十月围城》全面失利的悲剧呢?
预测:《窃听风云2》获奖
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